[marathon mary 312]

The Bank of America Chicago Marathon lottery results come out February 14th and I'm already checking my email obsessively. Applied for the third straight year after missing the cutoff by 47 seconds in my Boston qualifier attempt last October.

Started base building in December just in case — currently at 32 miles per week with long runs capped at 8 miles until I know if I'm in. The 18-week Pfitzinger plan I'm eyeing peaks at 70 mpw, which feels aggressive coming off a stress fracture that sidelined me for 6 weeks last summer.

Training Timeline Questions

If results drop Valentine's Day, that gives us exactly 31 weeks until race day October 13th. Is that too much time to maintain peak fitness, or should I be banking miles now? My running group is split — half are already doing tempo runs, the other half are staying conservative until they know their fate.

Also wondering about backup race options if the lottery doesn't work out. Detroit Marathon is September 29th, but that might conflict with my goal of a sub-3:15 Chicago attempt if I do get in.

[chicago sweat king]

Been through this lottery dance four times now — got in twice, rejected twice. The waiting is brutal but here's what I learned: start training like you're in. Worst case scenario, you're in amazing shape for a backup race.

That Pfitzinger 18-week plan is solid but 70 mpw might be overkill coming off injury. I peaked at 55 miles for my 3:08 Chicago finish in 2022 and felt strong through mile 24. The key was consistent weekly mileage, not necessarily high volume. My typical week included one tempo run (6 miles at marathon pace), one interval session (8x800m at 5K pace), and a progressive long run building from 14 to 22 miles.

For backup options, skip Detroit if you're serious about Chicago. Too close together and the taper timing gets messy. Twin Cities Marathon on October 6th is only a week before Chicago, so that's out too. If the lottery doesn't hit, I'd recommend focusing on a spring race like Boston (if you qualify) or Big Sur Marathon in April. Gives you a full training cycle without the October crunch.

[newbie nets nina]

Wait, so the lottery results really don't come out until February 14th? I submitted my application in November and assumed I'd hear back by New Year's. This is my first marathon attempt so maybe I'm being naive, but how competitive is it actually? The website says they accept about 45,000 runners but I have no idea how many people apply.

Also, what's this about Boston qualifier times? Do I need a certain time from a previous race to even be considered, or is the lottery completely random? I've been training since December but only running about 15 miles per week — is that enough base to handle an 18-week program if I get in?

[bulls betting bob]

The lottery acceptance rate hovers around 60-65% based on the numbers they release annually. About 70,000 applications for 45,000 spots, so your odds aren't terrible. But here's the reality check nobody wants to hear — starting at 15 miles per week in February for an October marathon is cutting it close.

Most training plans assume a 20-25 mile base before you even start the formal program. You're looking at needing to build from 15 to 35+ miles per week just to safely begin an 18-week plan. That's a recipe for overuse injuries, especially if you're jumping straight into tempo work and intervals.

My advice? Get accepted first, then reassess. If you're in, consider a run-walk strategy for your first 26.2 or push the goal to 2025. Better to finish healthy than DNF at mile 18 with IT band issues.

[degenerate dan b]

Already got action on whether I'll get in this year. Buddy of mine is giving me 2:1 odds that I get rejected again after three straight years of lottery losses. BetOnline actually has Chicago Marathon futures up — winner pays +650 right now, which seems low considering the depth of the elite field.

But honestly, the real gamble is committing to that training schedule before knowing if you're even in. I made that mistake in 2022, peaked too early, then had to maintain fitness for an extra 8 weeks when my backup race got pushed back. Burned out completely and ended up walking the last 6 miles.

[fitness fade sam]

The February 14th date is firm — got my rejection email at exactly 11:47 AM last year, so they batch send them all at once. What kills me is how they make you wait 3+ months after the application deadline just to find out.

If you're serious about backup options, register for Grandma's Marathon in Duluth (June 22nd) as soon as lottery results drop. It fills up fast and gives you a completely different training timeline. I ran it last summer after getting shut out of Chicago and the course is gorgeous — mostly downhill along Lake Superior with perfect 50-degree weather.

The 31-week timeline you mentioned is actually ideal. Gives you flexibility to build base, take a recovery week if needed, then hit the formal training plan without rushing. Just don't make my mistake of doing long runs in 90-degree August heat. Vave had props on how many runners would drop out due to heat last year — should've taken the over.

[bonushunter bev]

Stress fracture recovery is no joke — respect that 6-week setback and build conservatively. I came back too aggressive from a tibial stress reaction in 2021 and ended up with a full fracture that cost me the entire season.

31 weeks is perfect timing if you periodize correctly. Base phase until May, build phase June-August, peak phase September, taper in early October. The key is not maintaining peak fitness for 31 weeks straight — that's impossible and counterproductive.